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While top congressional negotiators and White House officials met Tuesday in an attempt to inject momentum into federal spending talks, significant hurdles remain to enacting a long-term appropriations agreement for the remainder of fiscal year (FY) 2020. The 116th Congress has already punted once when faced with an appropriations deadline - passing a continuing resolution (CR) in September to extend funding until November 21 - and lawmakers appear poised to take a similar action in a couple of weeks, likely pushing federal spending decisions into either December or early 2020.
House Democrats are pushing for a CR into early February, which could postpone the congressional spending disputes while the impeachment process plays out. It would also give lawmakers more time to reach compromises on the dozen fiscal 2020 appropriations bills, none of which have yet become law a month into the new fiscal year. Meanwhile, Senate Republican leaders prefer a stopgap ending in December, keeping the pressure on to wrap up the year's business before the chamber's likely impeachment trial starts in earnest.
Then there's the elephant in the room: a potential government shutdown. While we wouldn't go so far to suggest that a shutdown is "likely," tense partisan dynamics have been inflamed by House Democrats' impeachment inquiry which could stymie government funding talks. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) suggested this week that President Donald Trump might prefer a shutdown as a "diversion" to take attention away from the impeachment proceedings. However, with administration officials willingly joining in on congressional negotiations, our tea leaves suggest that the White House is open to helping broker a compromise.
· Where does the House stand? Earlier this year, the House passed 10 of its 12 appropriations measures ahead of the August recess. However, none of those bills are expected to become law since they were passed prior the summer budget deal and reflect discretionary spending numbers nearly $20 billion above that deal's spending limits. Additionally, the funding bills for Homeland Security and the Legislative Branch have yet to clear the lower chamber due to schisms over border security and lawmaker pay policies, respectively.
· Where does the Senate stand? The Senate began to jumpstart its appropriations process earlier this fall. Senators have wrapped up debate on their first four-bill minibus containing fiscal year (FY) 2020 spending bills for Agriculture, Interior-Environment, Commerce-Science-Justice, and Transportation-HUD - all of which cleared the Senate Appropriations Committee on a bipartisan basis earlier this month. While the first minibus is expected to pass later today, a second spending package containing Defense and Labor-HHS-Education is not anticipated to advance amid disagreements over border security and family policies.
· What's next? Despite resetting the government funding deadline to provide more time for negotiations, indications are that spending talks between House and Senate remain deadlocked. Earlier this month, Senate Appropriations Chairman Richard Shelby (R-AL) acknowledged that lawmakers may need to take up another stopgap funding measure to keep the government funded through the remainder of the year if an agreement on subcommittee allocations isn't reached before the Nov. 21 deadline. While Chairman Shelby and House Appropriations Chairwoman Nita Lowey (D-NY) have both expressed the desire to move spending bills through regular order, "poison pill" issues such as border security, family planning, and impeachment are sure to complicate matters moving forward.
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